Surely opinion polls influence how we vote?

This week's Independent News & Media Irish regional newspapers' column.

Michael Commane

You may remember the Met Office warned of rain and wind for election day. In spite of the warning I took to the hills. We managed to get most of the walking done before the bad weather descended. 

Back from the walk, cycling to my voting centre, I was thinking of the role that opinion-polls play in the lead-up to an election.

If you are not directly involved in politics and see that your candidate, according to the polls, has not got a chance in hell of getting elected why would you waste your number one vote on that candidate? 

And the same, if your preferred person is running away with it, why not give another person you deem would be a good representative your number one. Of course our PR system allows surpluses to be distributed.

Indeed, it was something I had discussed with a friend in the run-up to the election on Saturday.

Then on the Monday after the election well-known and seasoned journalist Justine McCarthy made exactly the same point and said that in the months ahead there might be need for a serious discussion about the power and influence of pre-election opinion-polls. And she said that as a neutral observer and not because of the Saturday result.

Later that morning on the Sean O’Rourke programme former Fianna Fáil government minister Noel Dempsey also alluded to the influence of opinion-polls and without his reference being in any way being sour grapes.

It set me thinking about how we make our minds up about anything. Why do I buy a particular washing-up liquid rather than another one? Is everything we do significantly decided by fashion and advertising?

How free are we to make up our own minds and do as we genuinely want to do for ourselves? Isn’t it remarkable to observe how conscious children are about fashion labels. The effects of advertising are even stronger on young impressionable people.

The well-known brand has to be stamped and very visible on the garment before the young fella or girl will wear it. When I was that age the label was tucked well inside the jumper for no one to see it.

Bob Dylan got it so right in his 1964 album, ‘The Times They Are a-Changin’. And with what speed, they are ‘a-Changin’ these days. 

In the days leading up to the election I spotted a Sky bus stop ad. It struck me as quite extraordinary. It’s selling Sky TV and Broadband and offering prospective customers a deal if they switch to them.

It shows you a large spacious brightly-lit family room. 

There are two adults and two children in the picture. 

Apparently a ‘happy family’. All four people are looking at screens. It’s clever. The father and son are looking at the one screen and then mother and daughter are looking at two separate screens.

Is that where family life is heading? Is that the model for the immediate future?

When advertising took off in the 19^th century, it simply showed products and explained what they did, where they could be bought and what they cost. 

Advertising companies have discovered that by wrapping the product around other desirable aspects there is a far greater chance of enticing the customer to spend money.

I’m impressed with what American philosopher Noam Chomsky says: ‘It is important to bear in mind that political campaigns are designed by the same people who sell toothpaste and cars.’

And it is good to be aware of that fact.